TRANSCRIPT: Ep. 17: THE STRETCH – Wins as a stat and why its obsolete

Text Transcript of Ep. 17

00:00:00 – 00:05:04

Woah to. It’s ninety miles the threat. Hey, welcome to another episode of the stretch ninety miles ninety miles from Wrigley field to Miller park. And here we are. This is the stretch is where we talk about. Sometimes the storm stuff sometimes feature is six stuff. Sometimes just weird stuff. And today we’re going to talk about a pitching stat that is meaningless pretty much. It’s becoming archaic. That’s for sure. It has been for a while that has been for while. But it def. More. So it tells a story historically, but in the modern game. I’m not sure really applies the way it used to at all it’s yeah. It’s one of those records that you know, if you look at all time career there’s records that just aren’t going to be broken. And it’s just you know, but we’re what we’re talking about is the win for a pitcher a win stat. That’s and in an innocence, the loss stat as well on the other side also fairly meaningless. But but yeah, I mean career wins. You know, you got you got Cy Young in I with five hundred eleven wins. That’s that was untouched. Well, when I was a kid. It was already like. Yeah. That’s that’s the. The formula. It’s never going to happen. And I don’t see a point now. And we’re gonna talk about it. Is it a fixable statistic? I honestly don’t think. So I don’t think you change it. It just is what it is. But that’s my personal. I mean, there’s a way they I I have idea on away it could be tweaked to actually become meaningful again. But then again why? And then and then it would totally mess what previous historical statistics. You almost got a call it like, I mean, you know, most different stat right called something else. The m w the modern win. I don’t know depends on it. But just for those of you that don’t know how a win is defined a win is defined for a starting pitcher only. And this is the part that always bothered me. For a starting pitcher only. The starting pitcher must go five complete innings and have the lead. When that starting pitcher leaves the game. That’s the only way they can qualify for a win and that well that qualifies them, and then of course, the team actually has to retain that lead. And then win the game. Which is what I was. A win. Right, right. Yeah. That’s exactly where it has to go. Not only do you have to do five full innings you to win the game. You got to lead the game when you leave the game. And oh, yeah. By the way, if you go six and a third and it’s tied. And the next guy comes in gets the last two that sixth-inning or the seventh inning. And then your team takes the lead. He gets Ige. It’s the win. He he might throw her is thrown two pitches to get to grown ball outs. Or even one pitch into a ground ball double play. And that guy gets the win not the guy that did all the heavy lifting. Not the guy that did all the labor. You know, not the team that did the hitting to take the lead. It’s it’s a on. That’s it’s a very weird staffer starting pitchers it well, and it’s also in that sense of weird staff for relief pitchers. Like what you know? Again. The reliever comes in and throws to pitches gets gets gets an out and then as taken out of the game. And then there. Offense. You know, it’s almost an offensive stat. If you wanna think about it in another way, it’s it’s you know, you can’t get a win less your team hits rights. So let’s say you’re the better pitcher ever and you’re on the worst team ever. Right. So you’re the best pitcher right senators or something like that back in the day and your team. Just can’t score runs. You hold the opponent down to one two runs game all your long Evan earned run. And just sparkling to point to any get three wins the right, right? You look at Jacob degrom as an example in the twenty eighteen baseball season. Yeah. Or cooling era, amazing stuff. I think the Mets got him ten wins that year. That’s ridiculous. He it’s it’s borderline meaningless stat. It is kinda. History. But what’s that? Let’s say, you know, you talk about run support. You know, does this pitcher get run support or not? And I mean, you know, whether a pitcher gets run support or not. Well, it depends on the other teams pitcher it depends on if the bats are hot or not depends. You know on just the general talent level of the lineup. The it’s all things that have nothing whatsoever to do at the pitcher and the pitchers stuff the pitcher’s performance at all as nothing to do with them at all yet.

00:05:04 – 00:10:00

It’s a pitchers stat. So and this used to be a big stat for the importance like back in the fifties. And sixties this was something that was looked at more heavily to determine how much you should be paying your pitcher contractual complete games things like that innings pitched were probably more important. But if you weren’t winning games, even though you had a sparkling Jacob degrom lake ERA. They may not wanna pay is much and it had nothing to do with you. Yeah. Well, and even in more recent history, you know, there was that the twenty win threshold and things like that was always like, you know, it’s a twenty game winning starting pitcher. You know that was looked at. I mean that would would play into Cy Young consideration, you know, and things like that even as recently as as the nineties. Indeed. So there were actually I. Spam. Look at like, Greg Maddox is a good example of the nominally of this stat, you know? You know, he won the Cy Young award. Four years in a row with starting with the last year, which icago and ninety two and then ninety three ninety four ninety five with the Braves. And you know, I’m looking in in ninety two he won twenty games with the cubs. You know, you know, he had a two point one eighty are a, of course, he was a good pitcher. But, but I I know that at that time, the, you know, I remember that being brought up, you know, he won twenty games. Ninety three won twenty games at the Lanta. You know, he was sixteen and six and ninety four and nineteen and two in nineteen ninety five with the Braves nine oh five winning percentage that season. And I guarantee that was looked at and played a role in him winning the Cy Young award. Now, you know, he had a lot of success with Atlanta. But that was a that was a good team. They they could score some runs they were solid team. So he, you know, almost guaranteed run support. I’m not downplaying. I mean. Yeah, he had a, you know, low to one, you know, even a couple years one point five sixty are a one point six three, you know. I mean, that’s super solid. But again, a one point six three E R A. You’re not gonna go nineteen into unless you’re team is scoring some runs correct? Yep. And that’s the whole argument with the Jacob degrom thing. Speaking of twenty eight dollars way. Yes, exactly, exactly. He had a lotta run from a lot of statistical writers guys that really dive down into the sabermetrics. The hey, he got a lot of run for MVP Christian yelich ended up running away with it at the end. But a lot of guys still argue that Jacob degrom had the more valuable season. There is a case to be made for that. But should MVP on team that is? Struggling to hang around five hundred. There’s arguments to be made about that. Was he preaching under pressure arguments made about that in the long run, though, lost all of this is really he couldn’t win any games. The team didn’t get them any wins. And it probably played a role in the VP, boating. It you know, it did because the team wasn’t enough. Pete Christian yelich put on his back helped carry them into the postseason. And I think he might have won it. Anyway, if all things were equal in the Mets were competitive, I think yelich might want it just because of the month. He had at the end that was you know, what have you done for me lately sticks in but the wins that cystic yourself for starting pitchers just kind of kind of silly. And it still affects my daily life and the fantasy baseball world because I still play fantasy baseball. It’s it’s there. It’s a statistics that is used. I have some relief pitchers that end up getting winds during the week because a closer will come. I’m in a tie ballgame. Top of the ninth is team scores. A run in the bottom of the ninth walks. It off the closer gets the win. It’s it’s it. In every single game. That’s played in baseball. There’s going to be a pitcher that gets the W. I don’t know if it should be that way, you said he had an idea of how to fix the wins the tick I’d like to hear it. I’d like to hear what you have about it. Because I think it’s kind of like you said it’s kind of amorphous it’s almost one in some ways. I mean, the only way would be to take the rules of how win is determined for relief pitchers and and make that the case for the starting pitchers essentially get rid of the five inning requirement starters. Sure.

00:10:01 – 00:15:02

Whoever the pitcher of record is with the lead lead remains in the team wins than that pitcher gets the win. It doesn’t matter. If it’s starter or reliever whatever just pitcher of record when the team has the lead. And then wins the game. And I, you know, I don’t know if that’s a very meaningful stat anyways. I mean, we got much better statistics these days, right? At least that would make more sense. And clean clean it up. I think that would definitely that would definitely throw some wrenches and fantasy baseball. Because now you’re Tampa Bay array opener, you know, as the opener has become more of an essential. Well, not an essential element. But a used element baseball. If the raise take the lead in the first and you had the reliever come in to open the game. He’s the guy that gets the win. Now. The interesting part is now and the way Tampa Bay does it because they’re only using that opener. And you know, they use it. Maybe once every five games or something twice every five games right now as soon as he comes out of the game the starter who is starting in the second inning is now in line for the win for the next four five six innings, and if they can get the lead. So it’s already happened in that sense. When you use an opener what you’re talking about is already in play. It’s just kind of a it’s a opener doesn’t have shod at all of a sudden and gonna go to the neck down the line ever, the first guy, and as yeah, it’s it’s a strange statistic you go back in history. I think it had more meaning wind. Pitchers went six seven eight nine innings every day, you go to the Braves history to tie to the Milwaukee Braves. For instance, Warren Spahn never pitched as an Atlanta brave, but he’s got the most wins in Atlanta Braves history. Why because the franchise went from Boston to Milwaukee to Atlanta. The statistics followed the franchise weren’t Spahn pitch ten years in Boston twelve years in Milwaukee. He’s probably the best pitcher in Milwaukee baseball history. As far as starters, go. Warren Spahn won three hundred fifty six ballgames a career run average three oh five he’s a hall of Famer topnotch. The majority of career was a Milwaukee. Brave. He’s I would I would argue he’s the the best starting pitcher in Milwaukee history. Now, if you just look at the winds, if you get into some other statistics, I don’t know you could go some different directions certainly been some great brewers pitchers over the years as well. But it’s just kind of kind of an interesting one because that ties back to Greg. Matic’s as well. You know, ninety miles time. Well, he was you know, he’s. It’s sort of borderline. It’s a mixture he’s he he, you know, he spent a lot of years Atlanta. But he really only spent one more year in Atlanta than he did in Chicago. So that’s a, you know, eleven years in Atlanta, ten in Chicago. And you know, yet one hundred ninety four wins with the Braves one hundred ninety four and eight six eighty eight win percentage. Two point six three are a with the cubs. One hundred thirty three in one hundred twelve five forty three win percentage. Three point six six one ERA. But, but yeah, I mean, he, you know, he’s for the Braves he’s second all time win percentage. And he sixth in wins with the Braves he had a hundred ninety four. So, you know. Yeah, we, you know. Cubs fans like declaim Maddox Brayson’s like declaim Matic’s to you know, just like the Braves will claim Hank Aaron and Warren Spahn. Yes, they will as as Atlanta courageous. Right. You know, really bothers you. Well, I mean, it’s just one of those things it’s like Milwaukee gets no credit for some of this baseball history. You know, it’s it’s fly over territory is the smallest market. It’s one of those things I’ll always whine about it is what it is Henry about it. Oh, we cry. We cry a lot. I cry a lot at least. Henry earns career started in nineteen fifty four with the Milwaukee Braves, the Milwaukee Braves were there from fifty to sixty five that means basically what eleven twelve years were with the Milwaukee Braves. He went to Atlanta for I don’t know if it was six or seven, and then became came back to Milwaukee. And I believe finished as brewer as a matter of fact, so I look at Henry Aaron as a Milwaukee baseball player, you know, because I want to claim some of that history to for my state for my team for the city. I lived in for a period of my life. But yeah, it’s just it’s kind of fascinating look at Warren Spahn to he led the majors one two three four five six seven eight times in wins. That’s pretty impressive. Yeah. That’s all of those seasons where over twenty wins. He added one two three four more seasons over twenty wins.

00:15:03 – 00:20:01

There’s nobody doing stuff like that anymore. That’s that. Oh, no numbers are way off. Now. You know, there’s times when he. Led the league in innings pitched three hundred to two hundred ninety two hundred ninety two you’re lucky if you get a go anywhere close to that. Yeah. Well, and it’s interesting because I think it it you look at modern stats on some of these older players, and especially the war war stat career war. You know, I’m looking at sei-yung five hundred eleven wins three hundred fifteen laws as two point six three ERA. He had a career war of one hundred sixty three point six. I mean. The I mean, you know. That’s that’s pretty incredible. But it’s you know, war being cumulative amassing the numbers he did over the number of years. He played twenty two years. You know, just. Yeah. Oh, all time career records the holds a lot. He actually holds the record for the most losses to with three hundred fifteen. Oh, he’s he’s the Brett farve of baseball. Most touchdowns most picks. Yeah. Cool. Right. Most Moster n- runs. Well, I suppose most most hits most innings pitched. Yup. Nobody’s going to do that kind of thing anymore. It’s just a completely different game. This statistic itself. You know, I think it’s a bit archaic. It definitely is a funky one. When it comes to, you know, the fantasy baseball world, which you know, I’m sure some of our listeners play even the daily stuff it can affect Warren Spahn just to wrap up on him. He did have a ninety nine point seven career war, not quite Cy Young level. But still a massive number. He only won one Cy Young which was kind of interesting that would be the nineteen fifty seven Braves that went on to beat the anx. But yeah, that’s I suppose I so technically Cy Young won the Cy Young award every year, then he played right? Well, if you’re say young, how can you give the young award anybody else? I mean, isn’t it weird to hide like you’d have my Cy Young award? What? Yeah. Yeah. Well, that’s bizarre stat. Warren Spahn is sixth all-time with winds three sixty three of modern players. You gotta go to number eight Greg Maddux three fifty five. We talked about number nine Roger Clements. Three fifty four. And I just gonna mention of active. Active pitchers. Let’s see what you got see Sobat the ah. Yep. Two hundred forty seven wins. And and he’s at with that that puts him in forty ninth place tied with Bartolo Cologne. To forty seven. He’s still trying to be active. Yeah. Big sexy. Yeah. Unlisted technically listed as active on here. But Justin Verlander two hundred eight wins. He’s one hundred and third. There. Nobody’s I think that three hundred Mark is going to be borderline on crackle. I don’t know if I see anybody ever getting three hundred wins again. I mean, even Justin Verlander. I mean, he is thirty six years old he’s at two eight and and dominant pitcher so that Grinky one ninety one he’s, but he’s thirty five also. So, you know, he’s not he’s not gonna crack three hundred the way pitchers used today. It’s I don’t think this is that it’s only going to go one way unless something massively changes here in ten to fifteen to twenty years on how the strategy of baseball. How baseball’s played the dominancy pen. I don’t forsee unless unless some relievers start picking up a lot of wins, which would be very strange, but I guess it’s possible of the change the ruling or the way it’s it’s done. But I think war or win. Yeah. Wins have become pretty archaic. I think is still fascinating an interesting to talk about. There’s that whole bit. Like we talked about at the beginning. Your team’s gotta be good or you’re not gonna win games either. You know, you could be the best pitcher to ever live. But if your team doesn’t score a run, it ain’t gonna matter. But yeah. So that’s kind of the winds episode on the stretch anything you wanna add or does that kind of wrap it up for you know, I think that wraps it up. Yeah. You know, I’m sure we’ll bring it up different times and other episodes as well. But but yeah, just good good to air that that one out. You’ll get that out there. I’m sure a lot of people agree with that these days anyways. I don’t think we’re out on any limbs. Here’s just kind of an interesting discussion.

00:20:01 – 00:20:39

An interesting thing to look at for. Sure. It’s it’s being phased out and relevance. That is for certain. Yeah. So I guess we’ll catch you next next time. And yeah, dry the weekend. If you’re listening to it on a weekend or whenever sometime in the future like we said previously. That’s the only thing we can do. This is being in the past. Yes. Time we weren’t getting into time travel. We already did robot arms. We gotta go. All right. All right. Later.

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