TRANSCRIPT: Ep. 29: Whats the Run Differential anyway?

Text Transcript of Ep. 29

00:00:00 – 00:05:01

Woah to. It’s ninety miles the threat. Hello. Again baseball fans. It is another episode of ninety miles stretch day run differential. Yes, today, we’re going to talk about, as Ryan the point out run differential during that up. He brings it up in a regular episodes, quite a Lou wanted to talk about just what it is. And what does it really mean? He completely threw me off on my open back to back up those with great openings. Yeah. There you go. Yes. Basically run differential is really simple. Right. Really simple stupid. All it is, is how many teams your run homebody runs your team has scored versus how many they’ve given up. Yeah. So if you have a plus one hundred run differential, you’ve scored one hundred more runs than you give given up if you have a minus one hundred you’re probably not very good. And you’ve given up one hundred more than you’ve scored. Yeah. And on the surface. Yeah. And, and I should mention to, you know, are we should mention that, you know, some places look at it maybe runs scored minus runs allowed overall, but it also could be on average per game. Right. Baseball reference does average per game. But, like if you look at standings like on MLB sites, you know, the team sites whatever usually it’s overall. Chris L? Yeah. But either way, what is trying to tell you is give you a ballpark idea of how good your team really is. You know. You know, beyond wins and losses right now, I’m going to sit here and argue that it tells a partial story because that’s all this can do is tell a partial story. But when you do look in the history if you start looking at numbers, the world’s the World Series, winners tend to be teams that are in the top five of this category. Yeah. That doesn’t mean it’s that way every time there’s a number nine team, a number ten team so you can do it. But obviously, it’s just like any sport. The more you score and the less you give up the more often you’re gonna win. Right. There’s different ways to break down though. Do you have some numbers in front of that were kind of interesting, right? Yeah. Well, I pulled up some different seasons. I thought we kind of look and, and, you know, see if there’s some anomalies I generally, I mean, just, just to just to kind of so you don’t mind position on this. So we’re not like full-blown fighting here. Like we with the poop throwing like our normal episodes. But you know that. I do think. Yeah, it is just a peace among others. However, I would say that, for the most part, a high run differential is a very solid base to stand on, and you can make arguments that you don’t need a high run differential and can still be a good team. But I don’t think it’s as stable of, of an offense in that case, you know, or there’s other, you know. Medium offense either. Right. Right. No. It is. It certainly has a lot to do with the pitching as well, because it’s run differentials. It’s not just runs scored overall team. Yeah. Yeah. But I I’d rather see if for my team, I’d rather see a high run differential, period. I mean, it it’s you know what happens, I think with a low rent it for I don’t think anybody’s going to argue with you on that point. Yeah. Right. But anyways, I pulled up some seasons. We like last year, for example. Twenty eighteen twenty nineteen is we record this these will be timeless. They will stay in the treasure trove of history, two thousand eighteen, you know Boston Red Sox won the World Series against the dodgers. But the team with the highest run differential and the season was Houston. They had a one point six average per game run differential. But it’s interesting. Because there’s another number. If you look baseball, references the Pathak Orian win loss, was, which is expected win loss record based on the number of runs. Scored and allowed by the team. So basically taking run differential and saying, here’s what should be their win loss, given their undifferentiated, which is interesting, an interesting number to look at, and then they have a number called pet the gory unlock, which is the difference between the actual win loss and the path the win loss. So now here’s the thing. He that as soon as you start calling it luck that doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I think it’s fun. I think that’s that’s you know, well about the Gorin serum or the in this situation, is it doesn’t tell a whole story at all. It’s not necessarily luck. It’s how your team is set up and defined now last season that as an example, twenty eighteen.

00:05:01 – 00:10:06

Yeah, you’re Chicago. Cubs had a plus one fifteen. My Milwaukee Brewers had plus one. Oh, seven over one hundred sixty two games. That’s pretty much nothing. Yeah. And again an average per game. That’s point seven for the cubs point six for the brewers when you look at it and rounding thing right there, you know, that’s rounding. It’s basically eight runs was the difference between the two teams over one hundred sixty two games that is next to nothing, right. The long the numbers Amer’s seven eight Kip. Yes, they were seventh and eighth, you would argue that you’re Chicago Cubs had a real chance to win the World Series last year and my Milwaukee Brewers didn’t outside of that number. You would you did. In fact. Say that either team had as, as good of a shot if you just look at if you look at run differential you look at the gory. And when loss you look at luck I you know, all right, e- either one would have had as good of a shot of the World Series as the other the cubs, you know, game one sixty three and, and the wild card, you know, I don’t even want to bring them up. But the those are one game one game each and, and it is what it is. But in any case, I mean had had they got through and got in there. I see no reason why the cubs seem Lasser wouldn’t have got as deep as the brewers, you know, winning the World Series or not. Who knows maybe not? I mean if you look at this, you’re looking at Houston, one point six hundred financial Boston’s up there, one point four dodgers one point two Yanni’s one point one. Cleveland one one point. Oh, I mean there there’s a lot of Teves teams above them. I mean, we’re talking about Ron differentials. That’s why I’m I’m well, yes run differential. But if you look at the run differential for Houston in Boston as well. I mean they’re talking to hundred and seventy in two hundred sixty two more runs scored by those teams. We’re talking one fifteen in one seven for Milwaukee. In Chicago, my it would be also though, this is the National League, so there’s less runs score to begin with. It’s also a tougher division than what he has in tougher division, that what well actually Houston’s division was pretty good tougher division, the what Boston had Boston had the Orioles in their division, who ended up with, oh, I don’t know negative two hundred seventy run differential. So that’s only part of the story and problem with it. To, to make your point further. I just wanna point out both Boston and Houston, it looks like may have played as many as twenty games more against sub five hundred teams than the cubs or the brewers rights rights, the idea, here is that run differential will tell you in context that a team is pretty good or not so much. What is soon as you get outside of that context, and you get into the structure of how each team plays its thirds the lose. Some meaning to me to me becomes more of a malleable. Okay. Generally speaking, you know the top twelve teams should all be playoff contenders. Well, that would make sense, but, you know, to make your point to a little more as much they don’t want to is, is the fact that, you know, run differential is interesting over the course tire season. But I definitely, you know, when you get into small sample sizes of the play offs. It’s a whole nother story and it’s all another ballgame. And so that whether that carries through, you know, we always talk about that teams that are hot towards the end of the season, you get in on the wildcard, something like that they’re probably not gonna have as high Veron differential over the course of the season as some of the other teams. And so, but that’s not going to really make a difference. As far as wins World Series now, generally, though, most of the time the team that wins the World Series has a healthy run differential. That’s. Most hill time is the case top five is what it tends to be. Get your out layers that are nine ten or eleven somebody was arguing with me on Twitter recently, it wasn’t a boat this directly. But they did mention that, you know, the teams that are in the eight nine ten eleven tend to have really good pitching staff. I would argue they have really good front to end guys right there. I two or three starters are often really lights out guys, and then it was the other guys in the pitching staff that would allow more runs or maybe the lineup wasn’t superstar but you had great pitchers. So you didn’t win by tons of runs. But you won the hard fought games the long and short of it is in my opinion, run differentials kind of an interesting guide but it’s doesn’t tell nearly complete enough of a story for me to take. Well, very I take it seriously. But I also throw it out the window half the time because when you start looking at the teams, it’s like, well that doesn’t really matter. Yeah. This well here, here’s an interesting outlier. I came across as pulling up two thousand sixteen and, and, you know, of course, the cubs led run differential one point six the Pathak Orian, win-loss one, oh, seven fifty four.

00:10:07 – 00:15:00

They were one. Oh three fifty eight. So, you know, there’s that, but well, what’s interesting is in fourteenth place. Texas Rangers, you know who won their division. Not a particularly strong division that year. I mean obviously that played a role. The athletics were horrible angels weren’t good. So the but they’re run differential zero point zero basically even on the season they still they ended up ninety five and sixty seven Pepe. Gordon win laws is eighty to eighty the luck number, which, I know you hate that number, but the difference between the two is thirteen. I think it’s a misnomer. I don’t hate it. I think looking at the potato and luck is really more. A factor of how is this team managed and how is it constructed? Yeah, then they say, oh, you’re just lucky that you’ve won these extra games over here. It’s like, well, no. If you have a great bullpen. Deep in great bullpens, elite four. Luck is too harsh of a term for a maybe it is. It just means there’s strength in, in other ways on that team managing could be shifting. Decade. Penn stuff. Right. Your number five starter is the worst starter in baseball. So every so often, you get beaten don’s, right? Yeah. And what I would look at is the brewers are an example for me. Obviously, the main reason is you can have a really good back into the bullpen. But really mediocre number four number five starter and mediocre middle relievers and all of a sudden you’re giving up a lot of runs in spots where you’re already punting on the game. And it’s something that we got into Twitter about if you’re giving up on the game to keep your good pitchers ready to go for the games that matter end up with a lower differential factor of a story. It’s true. It’s that’s fine. That’s true. I just finished up on taxes, though they won the divi- the west American League, West ninety five and sixty seven they made the playoffs with a zero point zero run differential. And of course they ended up getting swept by the Blue Jays in the division series, which makes sense. Yes, they actually were negative for runs for the season that zero point zero is your round runs. Right. Right. So, yeah, if you go into the playoffs with the negative run differential, there are some bad things going on there. Yeah. Not usually a good sign. Yeah. I thought that was interesting because that such an outlier, I mean, fourteenth in place in run differential, Texas, and they win ninety five games and make the playoffs right to look at your Chicago Cubs at twenty sixteen as well there, plus two seventy they played Cleveland who was plus one thirteen I’d point out that, you know, Minnesota was terrible that you’re there negative 167 Milwaukee was not good. They’re negative, sixty two your White Sox, negative twenty your white socks though my right? Come on into natty was negative one thirty eight the central divisions weren’t very good. Yeah. My point there, the I think the cardinals, I think did squeak in that year. They were plus sixty seven so, yeah, and, and, but the cubs, you know, they’re, they’re the gory and was one oh, seven fifty four. Negative four luck number. So, you know, even though they were scoring a lot of runs things in always it didn’t go as expected the full way. Nonetheless, I mean they still they still got in there. They still when all the way Boston had the next highest run differential and the Washington nationals, or third Cleveland fourth. Toronto fifth dodgers were sixth. So it’s interesting because yeah, I mean, then the cubs end up facing Cleveland so rights, but yeah just you know, touch on a couple of other seasons quickly. We can talk a little bit more generally. I. Wanna point out Texas at year. Two thousand eleven brewers did a little something that that season. They were good. Yeah. On the division. Yeah. So cubs were not good. They had a negative point six. They were seventy one in ninety one. But anyways brewers ninety ninety six sixty six point five young differential, plus sixty four runs right. Yep. And so they were six and they have them eighth. Are you looking at this is all the majors two thousand eleven oh.

00:15:00 – 00:20:00

There may maybe they well point five yeah. Two thousand eleven they have a point five. I have them. I have a number eight overall, not number six. Okay. They have eight here. With the run differential, which is for game Detroit seven Zona eight. Maybe they had Detroit News own ahead, a Milwaukee now they have seen Louis ahead. I’m not sure maybe I’m I might be looking at something that includes playoffs because what had home the walkie won the division, Saint Louis got very hot. Very lazy s wildcard and ended up beating the brewers in six games to go the NL C S and other reason that I hate the cardinals. Yeah. They don’t even win the division but the cardinals did according to my numbers here finished plus eighty nine versus Milwaukee’s, plus sixty four if that includes the post-season that might make a big difference. Your number have Saint Louis ad. They they’re in ninth place here. Okay point four must include postseason then. Yeah. Ninety and seventy two win loss this on the season. But, but yeah. You know, saying, Louis had a lower run differential them a walkie on the season anyways and yeah. You know, and then at that changes said two thousand eight decent year for the cubs, they had they had the highest run differential, one point one. But yet they were swept in the division series against the, the dodge by the dodgers who were thirteenth in run differential. Point three. So. You know, again, you know looking at run of rental of the season, and then and then projecting playoffs, I think, is where it’s a specially not as relevant, but run differential over the course of a season can be interesting because I think it could play a role in regards to, you know, how ties a win loss record. Anyways, you know, certainly, there’s some indications, but of course, run differentials in inclusion of the entire season as well. If your team makes moves at the deadline things like that, that two thousand eight season, Milwaukee went out and traded for C Sobat. The ended up. I see number twelve I don’t know what yours has them at shows them ten here. Sure. Then that might be the postseason numbers once again. But. Had them. Creeping up there. But see surpass your was amazing that year. And he’s a big reason that they even got into the postseason. They’re run differential probably climbed a few spots just in the last month of the season. So as much as it’s an indicator of where your teams at in the moment, and where it’s been that season. It’s just that it’s just an indicator. It doesn’t tell the whole story. Yeah, you get to the end of a season, a World Series winner is going to be a complete team most of the time that makes perfect sense. So that means they’re going to be a high run differential team. Normally that doesn’t mean you can’t be competitive. It doesn’t mean you can’t finish one game away from going to the World Series as the twenty teen bruised. They were well there with the cubs, he, like the two thousand three cubs one game away from going the World Series painful year. They were fourteenth in Rhonda Verana with point three Florida was eleventh with point four, I mean rate kind of lower segment in and of course, you know, Florida ended up winning the World Series that year. And yeah. And they were eleventh on the season with run differential, while the Yankees were number two, who they beat, you know, and nineteen ninety eight you know, cubs were eleventh, you know, they ended up. Getting swept by the Braves in the division series. But made the playoffs eighty two we wanted to mention Milwaukee lead in run differential, one point one. Sure there, ninety five and sixty seven and, you know, they, they beat the California Angels. Yes, that is correct face to advance the World Series, lost, and lost seven to the stink. Yup. There’s a reason I hit the cardinals. Yeah. Long historical reasons Saint Louis was fourth in Rhonda franchise that season. They were ninety two seventy California. Angels were second run differential brewers Burs lead one point one two point five cardinals.

00:20:00 – 00:25:02

But yet lost in the World Series. Yes that was the year rally fingers got hurt late in the season. They didn’t have their back end of the bullpen guy. It ended up going seven games a tight hard-fought series. Yeah. Just one of those things where you just really wish you had your one more guy. But that’s how it goes. That’s the name of the game. Yeah. Long. And short of it is this, this statistic. It does provide some insight on who the best teams might well be, but it doesn’t tell the whole story about who’s gonna win a seven. Yes. That that’s yeah. I just wanna I just want to mention. In one more season, just since her diamondback I want, I pulled up nineteen eight. You know, just for fun the cubs, of course won the World Series that year. They were second in run differential that season with the New York Giants were first near giants one point two cups were one point. Oh, and Detroit in American League, who the cubs played were appoint six, you know, of course, the, the cubs won that World Series four games one against the Tigers. But interesting that the New York Giants actually the, the gory on win loss is one, a one, fifty three whereas cubs, ninety eight fifty six yet. The cubs still took the National League. You know, of course, they didn’t have essentially didn’t even have playoffs then it was top team. And then. That’s it. Yeah, let’s teams in the league to there wasn’t a as much of a need for a playoff system at that point in time either. Yeah. Yeah. So. A lot of depth stuff about what run differential can mean. What it does mean. And what it doesn’t necessarily end. Yeah. I mean you know, I mean to mention other numbers related. If you wanna look at one loss, if you want to look at things I mean to round out the whole overall picture besides the obviously win loss record, which ultimately is all that matters. There’s run differential. But then you got you know, you got things like strength schedule simple rating system. Maybe that’s another episode we can do, and then you got pedagogy win loss and lock. You got you know, home and road games extra innings one run games versus teams over five hundred teams under five hundred. These are all. Create a an overall picture of the strength of a team. But, but the playoffs is anyone’s it’s any teams you know opportunity. I mean that’s always I about the whole goal make the postseason you make the postseason anything can happen. And that’s true. Because you know whether it’s a one game while card or a five game series division series are seven game championship series. I mean anything can happen. So this is true. The other thing about it, you know, the Burs did in twenty thousand end up winning the division with a worse ratio. But not by much those two teams were as tight as it gets. And it went to a game one sixty three for a reason they were rate, neck and neck on run differential. They’re neck and neck on a lot of things. Yeah. Yeah. And that’s the beauty of it where they neck and neck with other teams as far as getting to the World Series in winning it. Both teams were behind the dodgers. Both teams were behind those American League teams that we did mention have weaker schedules and things like that. But in the end, it was, it was literally, the ass anybody’s, anybody could come out of the National League last year could have been the dodgers could have been the Bruce could’ve been the cubs. It was the Rockies. Yeah. Point. I mean it was it’s really create quite crazy, when I’m looking at some of the numbers of the cubs Burs in two thousand eighteen both were thirteen and seven and interleague. Cubs are fifty one thirty one at home brewers or fifty one and thirty road. Cubs forty four and thirty seven brewers or forty five thirty seven extra innings cubs are eleven eight brewers or nine seven against five hundred or better teams cubs were forty nine forty six brewers were forty nine forty six against sub five hundred teams cover forty six twenty two birds or forty seven twenty one, you can’t get really get much more even than. That. No, it’s pretty pretty crazy. So that, that there was a lot more similarities between those two teams than cubs fans would like to admit for the most part. Yeah. I mean, the care still better. But, but in any case. Oh enough about twenty eighteen point seven ranchos better than point six. Yeah. So. But a lot of Pathak oriented lock for the Burs team last year. So. Or they just had better managing, which is my little argument when it comes to that path gory and luck. Sometimes it’s better use of the tools.

00:25:02 – 00:26:47

You have in the shed Ray. All right. Managers play a role. Maybe that luck. Things should be counted to the guy that sitting over there making the decisions. I’m just saying instead of calling it luck. Maybe there’s a better term we could use well and something to think about that Titians. Yeah. Maybe maybe, maybe not unless it is in the cubs favor. Maybe not whatever. But anyways, it’s been a fun discussion. That’s a lot of run differential oughta history stuff. So hopefully it was somewhat. Interesting. I think it was moderately entertaining. Yeah. We basically look at the stat it’ll tell you some things, but at the end of the day they gotta play the game on the field. And that’s the beauty of the game. So and need just gotta make the postseason because it doesn’t matter if he squeak in as a wildcard team, and you gotta lower onto French because you never know what can happen hot at the right time. You know, so really in the end, but it is to gauge something to look at through the season it. That’s a fun part of baseball. Just all the all the numbers it just as it can be interesting. And it’s like you know, we do that, you know you against, you know, cubs versus brewers all the time, you know, pinpointing very specific Satistics you can you can angle numbers in, in a lotta ways. So it’s as I always do when it comes to when it comes to this particular one, I have to explain why the Cup or the brewers should say are ten games over five hundred. Yeah. Even though you’re gonna say they should only be two because Le. Blah, blah. Yeah. It’s no, it’s, it’s, it’s how you used to lock. So that’s, that’s a lot ever. I’m done. I’m cardinal suck. Yeah. Cardinals. Hope you enjoyed the stretch. We’ll see next time you later.